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Tuesday, 20 February

20:28

Election odds Tasfintalk


The absence of any reliable polling during the current election campaign has left most observers scratching their heads as to what is exactly happening in the minds of voters.

What are the betting markets saying?



Sportsbet is currently taking bets on seventeen races. How many seats each of the three major parties will win in each of the five seats accounts for fifteen races. Then theres the two big races who will be next Premier, and will it be a hung Parliament or not?

Take the market covering a hung parliament. Its a two-horse race. Hung or not hung. The odds of hung are $1.65 and not hung $2.10. Unless one is a horse player, most people have trouble interpreting exactly what the odds mean. A bookie always includes his percentage in any quoted odds so that has to be eliminated in order to work out the chances of a particular event occurring as perceived by the markets. In this case, after the necessary adjustments, it means hung has a 56% chance of occurring whilst not hung has a 44% chance.

In the case of not hung either the Libs or Labor will have a majority.

Now in order to win a majority a party needs 13 seats which almost certainly means three seats in at least three electorates. The battle for the fifth seat in each electorate is crucial as everyone knows.

Its often said if a party wants to achieve a majority then three seats in Lyons is almost mandatory.

...

14:54

Vacancy rates drop in January "GroovUs Feed Anews"

Rental vacancies tighten

I've noticed many rental properties letting much more quickly in Brisbane in recent weeks.

Whether or nor this is the beginning of a trend for 2018 remains to be seen. 

SQM Research reported that nationally vacancy rates tightened from 2.5 per cent to 2.3 per cent in January, partly due to the seasonal variation over the Christmas period. 

In Sydney the vacancy rate fell from 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent in the month of January.

However, that's still higher than the 1.9 per cent recorded a year earlier.

Indeed, smoothing the numbers on a 6mMA basis you can see that Sydney's rental conditions have been easing, and rental price growth may now moderate from here. 


Hobart's vacancy rate increased to 0.4 per cent in January, but a severe rental shortage in the Tasmanian capital is putting continued upwards pressure on rents. 

Canberra also recorded a tight vacancy rate of 0.9 per cent in January, with Adelaide at 1.5 per cent, and Melbourne at 1.8 per cent. 

The trend in Perth's vacancy rate, although still elevated, is also improving. 

...

12:04

Puzzling change in Southern Ocean revealed by CSIRO "GroovUs Feed Anews"

Researchers aboard an Australian ship undertaking pioneering work in the Southern Ocean have found the "first hint" of a shift in a decades-long trend towards fresher, less dense water off Antarctica. Teams of scientists on the RV Investigator have been profiling the salinity and temperature of water between Tasmania and Antarctica at 108 locations. They also released the first batch of deep Argot floats to measure conditions as deep as 4000 metres. But it is the early analysis of data on salinity in the so-called bottom waters near the seabed that may stir international debate. "Every time we've measured since the 1970s, [bottom water's] been becoming lighter and fresher," Steve Rintoul, the voyage chief scientist, told Fairfax Media on Monday as the ship took its final ocean profile. "We've got the first hint now that maybe things are shifting back to becoming saltier and denser in the deepest part of the ocean," said Dr Rintoul, who is a senior researcher at CSIRO and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems (ACE) CRC. Dr Rintoul said "this increase in salinity still brings levels to nowhere near where they were in the 1970s ... nor even into the 1990s". The trend of warming of those waters has not changed.

10:22

The move to Inveresk ... Tasmanian Times

Click through to the site to view the cartoon.

10:07

MACKAY Mans jewellery draws attention of anti-bikie taskforce Search Results for TAS CrimeView

MACKAY February 20, 2018 at 05:52AM ,

Mans jewellery draws attention of anti-bikie taskforce

February 20, 2018 at 05:52AM ,

A MACKAY man has drawn the attention of Queenslands anti-bikie taskforce by wearing cool rings linked to outlaw motorcycle gangs. Alec Vincent Coulahan avoided the maximum penalty for wearing the prohibited jewellery adorned with the 1% insignia when he faced Mackay Magistrates Court.

https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/mans-jewellery-draws-attention-of-anti-bikie-taskf/3339411/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjg1ZTRkOWE5ZWUwN2Q0NWQ6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNHElFn69KqK9R4FN0SJN7F6Tk3xNA

,

https://ifttt.com/myrecipes/personal/29477056 ,

user1ouenvdy crimeviewqld ,

https://crimeview.wordpress.com/search/user1ouenvdy/ ,

09:57

Poll Roundup: Barnaby 1, "Momentum" 0 Dr Kevin Bonham

2PP Estimate By 2016 Preferences: 53.3 to ALP (same as end of last year)
With historical One Nation adjustment: 52.8 to ALP
Labor would win election "held now"

With six new federal polls released in 2018 so far it's time for another federal Poll Roundup, a series which I issue roughly every second Newspoll.  As noted in a piece I did about second-term Opposition Leaders, the year began with widespread predictions of a painful year for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten and many people reading a lasting Coalition recovery into, well, a single Newspoll really.  However it has taken the Coalition just two weeks to hit another speedbump in the form of a multi-faceted scandal involving Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce.  The scandal, involving both his relationship with a staffer and various arrangements arising from it, escalated into an exchange of insults between the Prime Minister and his Deputy late last week.

In all this Joyce's behaviour has been that of the ultimate entitled politician, who has even claimed that he himself would never comment on Liberal Party leadership matters when in fact he's been doing so, and frequently, for years. Some of Malcolm Turnbull's comments in response to Joyce's situation have agitated Joyce into retaliating and encouraged Tony Abbott supporters to do their usual thing.  However, the idea that Joyce's lack of moral standards and spectacular political hypocrisy should cause the Liberals to replace their own leader with someone better able to work with such a person is ridiculous.

Polling And Aggregation Changes

There has been a significant change over the break with Essential switching from weekly to fortnightly.  This will mean less frequent polling data and that in some weeks there may not even be any federal polls, but it will also be a lot less work for my aggregate as I will no longer need to be alternately deleting and reinstating successive Essentials to prevent the same datasets from influencing the total twice.  Also following the acquisition of Galaxy by YouGov, the pre-existing YouGov-Fifty Acres poll (which persistently produced extremely strange 2PP results) has yet to reappear, and I would not be too surprised if it has gone.  Some people have been confused about this and have thought the characteristics of the YouGov-Fifty Acres poll would now carry on into Galaxy and Newspoll, but this is not the case - YouGov's ownership of Galaxy has so far had no impact on its polling methods.

There has also been a significant change in polling aggregation land with Bludger Track going over to a...

04:15

TCTs Fish Farm Election Policy Scorecard "GroovUs Feed Anews"

The Tasmanian Conservation Trust has released a scorecard of the fish farm policies of the political parties and this week a copy of the scorecard will be delivered to 30,000 households in the electorate of Lyons

Monday, 19 February

10:03

A renewable energy jobs boom is sweeping across regional Australia "GroovUs Feed Anews"

Renewable energy: powering Australia in more ways than one http://www.examiner.com.au/story/5229330/renewable-energy-is-powering-jobs-in-the-regions/?cs=97 James Wright  18 Feb 18  A jobs boom is sweeping across regional Australia and theres one industry to thank the renewable energy sector. From places like Gordon in southern Tasmania to Pindari in north-east NSW, new solar installations, windfarms, battery arrays, solar towers and pumped hydro facilities are springing life into regional towns. How are they doing this? By injecting desperately needed investment and job opportunities into remote locations.

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